Ten years after Nine-Eleven attacks, President Barack Obama gathered his efforts to prioritize the nuclear deal with Iran which severely shake the world and the Middle East and smashed all the traditional norms in Washington.
The aftermath of the nuclear deal with Iran and after nearly a 100 years of the Sykes-Picot agreement for a new formation for the Middle East, the region felt the urge of having their own regional system besides the international one.
This regional system contains of four great powers the Arab Gulf States, Israel, Turkey and Iran. They all have political agendas and aspirations to dominate andultimately be the regional super power. During the past two or even three decades, the situation was going quiet smoothly between these four pillars taking into consideration two important facts; one, is the “stable alliances” between the US and the Gulf States, Israel and Turkey, two, is the “stable aggression” between the US and Iran.
Iran took advantage of the following factors to climb on them seeking openness to the world, having less sanctions yet more engaged in the world politics, economy and security.
First: Obama’s policies
The excessive reliance on diplomacy and retroversion policies that the Obama administration’s adopted, which “many of the US congressmen opposes”. And most importantly the harm that hit the oldest and the most traditional alliance between the US and the Gulf states and between the US and Israel.
Second: Muslim countries clash
The clashes between Saudi Arabia and Turkey over Muslim brotherhood organization and between Saudi Arabia and Egypt over President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s attitude and statements; has made Saudi A. busy with its clashes and helped Iran achieve better diplomatic relations “but still limited” advancements with both Turkey and Egypt.
Third: Corrupted/useless international organizations
The useless role of the UN and other affiliated international organizations as well as the delay in producing new laws and/or establishing new non-governmental organizations to address the new normal in the world; has helped Iran use this momentum of weakness to exit its isolation despite the tens of accusations against it.
Fourth: Weak Arab world
The weakness of the Arab pillar, the dependency on the US as well as the lack of strategy to maintain its upper-hand and its interest in the region without a western support, has helped Iran offering herself as a coherent pillar, independent, powerful, and has a vision and a strategy in the Middle East and the world.
Fifth: Arab Spring
The Arab Spring has helped Iran in penetrating in the Levant so effectively to the extent that it imposed high stakes in the region and now any settlement has to be in Iran’s interest.
Time was on the Iranians side, it was the right time for them to build stakes in the region and so they did successfully.
I am not arguing that the Nuclear deal between the west and Iran is bad, on the contrary I see it very important and promising when it comes to trade and security especially with neighbors, however, the only problem in my point of view is TIME.
President Obama did not only ignore the interest of US allies in the Middle East especially Saudi Arabia but also intended to bring the deal into effect at a time when all Arab countries are severely weakened by the Arab Spring and terrorism that has gone to a higher level that even the US itself couldn’t put an end to it despite the F-22 and F-16 that are targeting ISIS areas of control in Iraq and Syria.
The deal has also came at a time when Saudi Arabia needed the US to back her up against the Iranian expansion in Yemen, Syria, Lebanon and Iraq and most importantly, it came at a time when the US decided to shift its role in the world order and stopped engaging in ANY conflict in the world.
The Iran deal was absolutely not at the right Time.
The P5+1 agreement had shifted the balance of power and the security of the regional and world orders and so far it has produced a new normal for the way America deals with its allies and has put the region on the urge of a war because of the high tensions that has been awakened between Saudi Arabia and Iran and has harmed the relations between Israel and the US.
I would like to conclude my argument by saying: I’m not against ending the violence mode between Iran and the west, because I believe it will have good impact on the long run however, President Obama’s insistence on ignoring the implications of this rapid rapprochement with Iran and the marginalization of the Arabs’ important role in the region is the thing I mainly oppose.
It should also be noted that any attempt to destabilize the Gulf States and especially Saudi Arabia means the end of an Arabic dream; as all other Arab countries are busy dealing with their problems and conflicts. And if the US is seeking a balance of power in the region, it should take an immediate step forward to heal the wounds with its allies and obstruct the Iranian expansion fantasy in the Arab world.
Guess this is the next administration’s daily workout until they get back in shape with their allies.
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